Vanke A (000002) June 2019 sales review: stable and far
Core point of view The future competition in the industry may change from the competition in sales scale to the competition in profitability.
In terms of profitability, the company not only allows capital costs but also has certain advantages.
Steady sales growth to ensure sustainable growth.
The company achieved a monthly sales area of 489 in June 2019.
30,000 square meters, with a sales amount of 663.
9 trillion, an increase of 8 each year.
8% and 1.
In the first half of 2019, the company realized a sales area of 2,150.
10,000 square meters, sales amount 3340.
0 ppm, increasing by 5 each year.
6% and 9.
In the case where the company does not acquire land on a large scale, and cash resources continue to be invested in new businesses such as business and logistics, the company’s traditional development business still maintains the necessary scale growth and outperforms the industry slightly.
Focus on the core urban area and avoid sinking.
In the history of the company, it has been cautious to enter small and medium cities, and it will be more cautious after 2019.
The average floor price of land acquisition equity in the first half of 2019 reached 6522 yuan / square meter, an increase of 24 over the same period in 2018.
We believe that the rise in the average land price is mainly due to the structural focus of companies on higher-line areas.
Judging from the overall scale of land acquisition, the equity land price dropped by 1 in the first half of the year.
6% (measured by a slight drop in the potential value of the goods), the company basically maintains the principle of equal expansion and does not have a game cycle.
The comparative advantage of capital costs may be more prominent.
The fact that the financing channels currently facing the industry (including trusts, overseas bond issuance, etc.) has gradually narrowed, and financing restrictions have gradually increased.
The company basically does not rely on non-standardized front-end financing, and its reliance on overseas bonds is much lower than similar companies listed in Hong Kong.
Moreover, as the industry leader, good credit also guarantees long-term and stable capital costs.
We expect that the company’s financing cost advantage may become more apparent in the future.
From sales scale competition to profitability competition.
In the past few years, the industry has been paying attention to the competition in sales scale. This is because, in the context of rising housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities, running fast basically means doing well.
However, after 2019, lowering urban housing prices will stabilize and continue to maintain high leverage. High capital costs have little significance.
Although some 杭州桑拿养生会所 companies’ sales growth may be faster, profitability may be poor.
We believe that the company will use its own profitability advantages to maintain steady growth in performance.
Risk factors: The risk of the inflection point of the mortgage interest rate going up.
The development business grew steadily, the quality of new business development improved, and the company continued to be optimistic about the company’s investment value.
The company’s development business is running very steadily, and new business development has also entered a new stage of “convergence and focus, consolidating the basic market.”
We maintain our EPS forecast for 2019/2020/20213.
71 yuan, maintaining the company 36.Target price of 26 yuan / share, maintain the company’s “Buy” investment rating