Huaibei Mining (600985) 2019 Interim Report comment: volume reductions and price increases to ensure stable performance and upward consumption of coking coal leaders significantly underestimated
Matters: The company released its 2019 Interim Report. H1 achieved operating income of US $ 30.5 billion, a decrease of 12% per year, mainly due to the decrease in trade income. During the period, the company realized a net profit of US $ 1.9 billion, an increase of more than 17%.
In 淡水桑拿网 terms of launching products, the company sold the most commercial coal 902 in 2019H1, replacing 15% each time.
Comment: Coal business: volume reduction and price increase to ensure stable coal performance and prominent geographical advantages.
During the 2019H1 period, the company’s commercial coal production and sales volume decreased by 8% and 15%, respectively.
At the price end, Jingtang Port’s 1/3 coking coal half-tax average price in 2019H1, which represents the market average, rose by 1% (16 yuan / ton) in 2019H1. The company benefited from its natural location advantage near the hinterland of consumption.(Including tax) rose by 50 yuan / ton, deducting 24 yuan / ton eroded by rising coal operating costs, and gross profit per ton rose by 26 yuan / ton.
Under the situation of volume reduction and price increase, 西安耍耍网 the company’s coal business sales gross profit digested 7%, which remained stable overall.
Coal chemical business: rising costs and additional pressure on by-product prices, coke ton gross profit pressure.
The company’s coking capacity is 440 ethyl acetate, and it is co-produced with 40 coke oven gas to co-produce methanol.
The average molecular weight of the initial product coke (excluding tax) increased by 3% to 1888 yuan / ton under the influence of cost. The production and sales were basically the same as last year. According to the purchase price of coking coal, the gross profit of coke decreased by 8% to 215 yuan / ton.
The most important by-product of methanol appears to be a decrease in volume and price. The average expenditure of excluding tax in 2019H1 is about 17 yuan / ton, while sales volume has increased by 26% against the trend, so methanol sales revenue has increased significantly by 5%.
The price of coal tar produced in Huaibei area decreased by 6% year-on-year, crude benzene decreased by 30%, and sulfur decreased by 4%. If calculated based on the 1% yield, the methanol yield was calculated as 6%, and the ton coke by-product income decreased by 43/Ton.
Consumer coking coal faucets are significantly underestimated.
In terms of dividend yield, if the annualized net profit of 1.9 billion attributable to the parent is calculated in 2019H1 (calculated based on the 30% dividend ratio), the company’s existing dividend yield is as high as 5.
3%; even based on our initial forecast of 33 million attributable net profit, the dividend yield is also 4%.
From the perspective of PE, according to 2019H1, the net profit of 1.9 billion attributable to mothers is only 5.
7 times, unless we follow our initial forecast of 33 million attributable net profit calculation, PE is only 6.
The relative sharp contrast is that the similar company Lu’an Environmental Energy, the termination of Xishan Coal and Electricity on August 9 PE (TTM) is 8.
7 times and 9.
8 times, significantly underestimated multiple features.
Investment suggestion: According to our prediction of the central coal price, we maintain the company’s EPS in 2019-2021 to be 1.
56 and 1.
63 yuan, still maintained at 15.
The target price of 80 yuan, maintain the “strong push” level.
Risk Warning: Steel prices have fallen sharply; the broader market has fallen more than expected.